Mary Peltola holds the lead in trader consensus for the Alaska Senate race due to her dominant performance in the August nonpartisan primary, where she captured 49.5% of the vote compared to incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan’s 41.4%. Recent polls show her maintaining a narrow edge heading into the November 3 ranked-choice election, with strong support among Democratic and independent voters expected to consolidate in later rounds. The presence of multiple Republican candidates on the ballot, including Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., has created potential vote-splitting dynamics that favor Peltola under ranked-choice rules. Legal efforts to delay certification over alleged voter confusion were rejected by a federal judge on November 1, clearing the path for standard resolution. These factors have positioned her as the clear frontrunner in the closely watched contest that could influence Senate control.