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icon for September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)

September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)

icon for September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)

September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)

Okt. 10

Okt. 10

1,30–1,34ºC 48%

<1,30ºC 41%

1,35–1,39ºC 37%

1,45–1,49ºC 34%

Polymarket
NEU

1,30–1,34ºC 48%

<1,30ºC 41%

1,35–1,39ºC 37%

1,45–1,49ºC 34%

Polymarket
NEU

<1,30ºC

$0 Vol.

41%

1,30–1,34ºC

$0 Vol.

48%

1,35–1,39ºC

$0 Vol.

37%

1,40–1,44ºC

$0 Vol.

34%

1,45–1,49ºC

$0 Vol.

34%

>1,49ºC

$45 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a historic peak, is the dominant near-term driver lifting trader-implied probabilities toward the 1.30–1.34°C bin for September 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. August 2026 set a joint record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per ERA5, and ongoing equatorial Pacific warmth plus elevated global ocean heat content continue to support above-trend values, though model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce uncertainty around the 1.3–1.5°C range. NOAA and ECMWF updates through late September will refine the final monthly figure.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$45
Enddatum
10. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecasts pointing to a historic peak, is the dominant near-term driver lifting trader-implied probabilities toward the 1.30–1.34°C bin for September 2026 global surface temperature anomaly relative to 1850–1900. August 2026 set a joint record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels per ERA5, and ongoing equatorial Pacific warmth plus elevated global ocean heat content continue to support above-trend values, though model spread and the exact timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce uncertainty around the 1.3–1.5°C range. NOAA and ECMWF updates through late September will refine the final monthly figure.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$45
Enddatum
10. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

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Ja
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Wird 2026 das heißeste Jahr in den Aufzeichnungen sein?

77%
Ja
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98%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „1,30–1,34ºC" mit 48%, gefolgt von „<1,30ºC" mit 41%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 48¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 48% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 31, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)" ist „1,30–1,34ºC" mit 48%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 48% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „<1,30ºC" mit 41%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „September 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.