Recent polling averages place the PLQ at 22-24% provincewide, behind the PQ but ahead of or tied with the CAQ, with support heavily concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on the Island of Montreal and its suburbs. This geographic clustering limits seat efficiency outside those ridings, producing median projections of 31-32 seats across models such as 338Canada and Poliwave. The election writ dropped on August 27 for the October 5 vote, and mid-September surveys from Léger, Pallas, Nanos, and others show a modest PLQ rebound amid CAQ slippage and a stable PQ lead. High undecided rates and numerous tight three-way contests outside Montreal keep the most probable range narrow around 28-35 seats. Late momentum shifts or turnout variations in battlegrounds could still adjust the final tally.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert28-31 36%
<28 26%
32-35 25%
36-39 6.3%
$25,053 Vol.
$25,053 Vol.
5. Okt. 2026
<28
26%
28-31
36%
32-35
25%
36-39
6%
40-43
2%
44+
1%
28-31 36%
<28 26%
32-35 25%
36-39 6.3%
$25,053 Vol.
$25,053 Vol.
5. Okt. 2026
<28
$4,646 Vol.
26%
28-31
$5,039 Vol.
36%
32-35
$7,007 Vol.
25%
36-39
$5,508 Vol.
6%
40-43
$1,501 Vol.
2%
44+
$1,351 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the PLQ at 22-24% provincewide, behind the PQ but ahead of or tied with the CAQ, with support heavily concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on the Island of Montreal and its suburbs. This geographic clustering limits seat efficiency outside those ridings, producing median projections of 31-32 seats across models such as 338Canada and Poliwave. The election writ dropped on August 27 for the October 5 vote, and mid-September surveys from Léger, Pallas, Nanos, and others show a modest PLQ rebound amid CAQ slippage and a stable PQ lead. High undecided rates and numerous tight three-way contests outside Montreal keep the most probable range narrow around 28-35 seats. Late momentum shifts or turnout variations in battlegrounds could still adjust the final tally.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volumen
$25,053Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the PLQ at 22-24% provincewide, behind the PQ but ahead of or tied with the CAQ, with support heavily concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on the Island of Montreal and its suburbs. This geographic clustering limits seat efficiency outside those ridings, producing median projections of 31-32 seats across models such as 338Canada and Poliwave. The election writ dropped on August 27 for the October 5 vote, and mid-September surveys from Léger, Pallas, Nanos, and others show a modest PLQ rebound amid CAQ slippage and a stable PQ lead. High undecided rates and numerous tight three-way contests outside Montreal keep the most probable range narrow around 28-35 seats. Late momentum shifts or turnout variations in battlegrounds could still adjust the final tally.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$25,053Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the PLQ at 22-24% provincewide, behind the PQ but ahead of or tied with the CAQ, with support heavily concentrated among anglophone and allophone voters on the Island of Montreal and its suburbs. This geographic clustering limits seat efficiency outside those ridings, producing median projections of 31-32 seats across models such as 338Canada and Poliwave. The election writ dropped on August 27 for the October 5 vote, and mid-September surveys from Léger, Pallas, Nanos, and others show a modest PLQ rebound amid CAQ slippage and a stable PQ lead. High undecided rates and numerous tight three-way contests outside Montreal keep the most probable range narrow around 28-35 seats. Late momentum shifts or turnout variations in battlegrounds could still adjust the final tally.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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