Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette hovering near 22% support, placing it behind the Parti Québécois and competitive with the Liberals amid a fragmented field that also includes rising Conservative support. The October 5 election follows eight years of CAQ governance and a leadership transition from François Legault, contributing to voter shifts concentrated among francophone and regional ridings where seat efficiency varies sharply. High incumbent retirements and a compressed campaign have sustained wide uncertainty in riding-level projections, producing seat ranges for the CAQ that span single digits to the low thirties. Late-campaign policy announcements on infrastructure and trade, alongside any further movement in francophone voter preferences or turnout differentials, could alter the final distribution across these contested outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert30+ 36%
20-24 25%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,532 Vol.
$20,532 Vol.
5. Okt. 2026
<5
15%
5-9
13%
10-14
8%
15-19
8%
20-24
25%
25–29
11%
30+
36%
30+ 36%
20-24 25%
<5 15.6%
5-9 13.5%
$20,532 Vol.
$20,532 Vol.
5. Okt. 2026
<5
$1,410 Vol.
15%
5-9
$1,975 Vol.
13%
10-14
$3,537 Vol.
8%
15-19
$1,896 Vol.
8%
20-24
$3,542 Vol.
25%
25–29
$1,794 Vol.
11%
30+
$6,377 Vol.
36%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette hovering near 22% support, placing it behind the Parti Québécois and competitive with the Liberals amid a fragmented field that also includes rising Conservative support. The October 5 election follows eight years of CAQ governance and a leadership transition from François Legault, contributing to voter shifts concentrated among francophone and regional ridings where seat efficiency varies sharply. High incumbent retirements and a compressed campaign have sustained wide uncertainty in riding-level projections, producing seat ranges for the CAQ that span single digits to the low thirties. Late-campaign policy announcements on infrastructure and trade, alongside any further movement in francophone voter preferences or turnout differentials, could alter the final distribution across these contested outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volumen
$20,532Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette hovering near 22% support, placing it behind the Parti Québécois and competitive with the Liberals amid a fragmented field that also includes rising Conservative support. The October 5 election follows eight years of CAQ governance and a leadership transition from François Legault, contributing to voter shifts concentrated among francophone and regional ridings where seat efficiency varies sharply. High incumbent retirements and a compressed campaign have sustained wide uncertainty in riding-level projections, producing seat ranges for the CAQ that span single digits to the low thirties. Late-campaign policy announcements on infrastructure and trade, alongside any further movement in francophone voter preferences or turnout differentials, could alter the final distribution across these contested outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$20,532Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette hovering near 22% support, placing it behind the Parti Québécois and competitive with the Liberals amid a fragmented field that also includes rising Conservative support. The October 5 election follows eight years of CAQ governance and a leadership transition from François Legault, contributing to voter shifts concentrated among francophone and regional ridings where seat efficiency varies sharply. High incumbent retirements and a compressed campaign have sustained wide uncertainty in riding-level projections, producing seat ranges for the CAQ that span single digits to the low thirties. Late-campaign policy announcements on infrastructure and trade, alongside any further movement in francophone voter preferences or turnout differentials, could alter the final distribution across these contested outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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