Morena holds a commanding position in Oaxaca's state politics ahead of the 2027 congressional elections, reflected in its 66% market share as traders weigh its dominance in the current LXVI Legislature. INEGI data shows Morena controlling about two-thirds of seats, with PVEM and PT allies pushing the coalition above 80%, enabling swift passage of measures such as the recent Guardia Nacional reform. State-level polling for related 2028 races shows Morena candidates leading with roughly 47% support, while opposition parties including PRI, PAN, and MC register single-digit figures amid limited recent momentum. The next contest renews all 42 seats through a mix of district and proportional representation, with Morena's incumbency, resource advantages, and coalition stability serving as primary drivers of the current implied probability.