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icon for NM-02 Wahlsieger
Politik·Midterms

NM-02 Wahlsieger

icon for NM-02 Wahlsieger
Politik·Midterms

NM-02 Wahlsieger

Polymarket

$33,491 Vol.

Polymarket

$33,491 Vol.

Gabe Vasquez (D)

$14,300 Vol.

89%

Greg Cunningham (R)

$19,191 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez holds a strong trader consensus lead in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting his proven ability to win the Trump-leaning district twice and his substantial fundraising advantage of roughly $3.78 million raised compared to Republican Greg Cunningham’s $1.51 million. Cunningham, a retired police officer and Marine veteran who won his June primary decisively, has emphasized public safety, border issues, and crime in the campaign, drawing support from law enforcement groups and visits from House Speaker Mike Johnson. A late-August SurveyUSA poll showed the race within the margin of error at 46% for Vasquez and 43% for Cunningham, while forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic. An October 16 debate and ongoing national political dynamics, including Republican messaging around congressional control, remain key variables that could influence voter turnout in this battleground seat.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$33,491
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez holds a strong trader consensus lead in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting his proven ability to win the Trump-leaning district twice and his substantial fundraising advantage of roughly $3.78 million raised compared to Republican Greg Cunningham’s $1.51 million. Cunningham, a retired police officer and Marine veteran who won his June primary decisively, has emphasized public safety, border issues, and crime in the campaign, drawing support from law enforcement groups and visits from House Speaker Mike Johnson. A late-August SurveyUSA poll showed the race within the margin of error at 46% for Vasquez and 43% for Cunningham, while forecasters rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic. An October 16 debate and ongoing national political dynamics, including Republican messaging around congressional control, remain key variables that could influence voter turnout in this battleground seat.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$33,491
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den IA-02 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den IA-02 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

51%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus für CO-02 gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus für CO-02 gewinnen?

95%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus von MN-02 gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus von MN-02 gewinnen?

93%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„NM-02 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Gabe Vasquez (D)" mit 89%, gefolgt von „Greg Cunningham (R)" mit 12%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 89¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 89% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „NM-02 Wahlsieger" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $33.5K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 16, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „NM-02 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „NM-02 Wahlsieger" ist „Gabe Vasquez (D)" mit 89%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 89% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Greg Cunningham (R)" mit 12%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „NM-02 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.