NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission and responses to Russian drone incursions into alliance airspace have shaped recent trader focus on this market. On September 15, 2026, Italian jets under NATO command shot down a suspected Russian Geran-type drone over Lithuania that entered from Belarus and carried explosives, marking the first such interception in that country. Similar violations occurred in Romania in late September without interception, while earlier 2025 incidents in Poland led to multiple NATO shoot-downs during large-scale Russian strikes on Ukraine. Ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian targets, combined with electronic warfare and low-cost drone characteristics, increase spillover risks into NATO territory. Heightened patrols, air defense reinforcements, and alliance statements on hybrid threats continue to influence assessments of future interceptions.