Recent polling averages place Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud in a virtual tie for the most Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, with both blocs short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern. This narrow gap, combined with wide variation across pollsters and multiple lists hovering near the 3.25 percent threshold, sustains uncertainty over which major party will finish second. Surplus-vote agreements due October 16, overseas voting October 20, and the final pre-blackout surveys by October 23 could shift seat projections and trader pricing. Turnout among Haredi, Arab, and centrist voters, along with any late security or economic developments, remains the primary variable that could separate the leading contenders.