The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike of 25 basis points to a 3.75–4.00% target range, paired with hawkish guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh citing 3.7% PCE inflation, has anchored near-term Treasury pricing and lifted the 5-year yield to approximately 4.86%. Persistent price pressures and resilient growth expectations have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, with traders now assigning elevated odds to further tightening at the October FOMC meeting. Key upcoming releases—including the October 2 employment report, October 14 CPI, and October 28 policy decision—will clarify whether inflation is moderating enough to allow yields to retrace or whether stronger data sustains the recent upward pressure through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$24,608 Vol.
Unter 4,50 %
71%
Unter 4,45 %
73%
Unter 4,40 %
43%
Unter 4,35 %
34%
Unter 4,30 %
23%
Unter 4,25 %
18%
Unter 4,20 %
16%
Unter 4,10 %
12%
Unter 4,00 %
9%
$24,608 Vol.
Unter 4,50 %
71%
Unter 4,45 %
73%
Unter 4,40 %
43%
Unter 4,35 %
34%
Unter 4,30 %
23%
Unter 4,25 %
18%
Unter 4,20 %
16%
Unter 4,10 %
12%
Unter 4,00 %
9%
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike of 25 basis points to a 3.75–4.00% target range, paired with hawkish guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh citing 3.7% PCE inflation, has anchored near-term Treasury pricing and lifted the 5-year yield to approximately 4.86%. Persistent price pressures and resilient growth expectations have shifted market-implied rate paths higher, with traders now assigning elevated odds to further tightening at the October FOMC meeting. Key upcoming releases—including the October 2 employment report, October 14 CPI, and October 28 policy decision—will clarify whether inflation is moderating enough to allow yields to retrace or whether stronger data sustains the recent upward pressure through year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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