Current observational data and forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration indicate overcast conditions with light rain or drizzle holding daytime highs in Chengdu to a peak of 23°C on September 19. Persistent cloud cover, northeasterly flow, and high humidity near 85–90% have suppressed solar heating and kept temperatures aligned with the market-implied outcome. Historical September averages near 25°C provide context, yet the present synoptic pattern has produced cooler-than-normal readings. A sudden break in cloud cover or stronger subsidence could allow brief warming above this threshold, though model consensus and real-time station reports make such shifts unlikely before resolution.