Strong bipartisan opposition in Congress, including a unanimous Senate resolution against any pardon or clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell, has reinforced trader expectations that President Trump will not grant one by the end of 2026. Maxwell has exhausted nearly all appellate options, leaving a presidential pardon as her primary remaining path, yet Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has stated he would not recommend clemency, and White House officials have described the matter as not under consideration. Trump has repeatedly declined to rule out the possibility while stating he has not thought about it or received formal requests, underscoring the substantial political risks tied to Maxwell’s conviction for sex trafficking minors in connection with Jeffrey Epstein. These institutional and public pressures explain the 95% implied probability on “No.”