Blue Origin’s redirection of resources away from New Shepard suborbital tourism flights, paused for at least two years starting in early 2026, forms the main driver behind the 85.5% market-implied odds against Jeff Bezos reaching space before 2028. The company is prioritizing New Glenn orbital launches and Blue Moon lunar landers for NASA’s Artemis program, with an uncrewed cargo mission targeted for late 2026 and crewed lunar landings not slated until 2029. New Glenn has achieved initial orbital successes but faces ongoing technical and infrastructure challenges, including a May 2026 pad explosion that delayed returns to flight. No crewed orbital missions or personal flight announcements involving Bezos have emerged, consistent with the firm’s focus on heavy-lift capabilities and long-term lunar infrastructure over near-term suborbital tourism.