Congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% সম্ভাবনা
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% সম্ভাবনা
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
ভলিউম
$18,051শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
ভলিউম
$18,051শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit has historically prevented default despite repeated brinkmanship, and current projections place the X-date—the point when extraordinary measures would be exhausted—after 2027. The limit stands at $41.1 trillion following the 2025 reconciliation increase, with debt subject to the limit projected to reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury cash management and extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, pushing any potential default into 2028. Traders assign 97% probability to no default by 2027 because of the dollar's reserve-currency status, deep Treasury markets, and consistent past resolutions. A realistic shift could occur only through an unusually prolonged 2027 standoff that exhausts measures before year-end.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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