Trader consensus assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the listed resolution triggers have occurred through mid-September. Donald Trump remains in office following his second term, with no removal or resignation. The 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S. strikes and the prior death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stayed contained without regime change or a direct U.S. invasion. No Taiwan invasion by China, leadership shift in Beijing, Russian move against a NATO member, or Republican Senate supermajority has materialized. Bitcoin has avoided extreme price thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters have struck. Scheduled midterms, ongoing tariff disputes, and regional strikes have not escalated to market-defined thresholds, supporting the current pricing while leaving room for late-year developments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডকখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
কখনও কিছু হয় না: 2026
হ্যাঁ
84% সম্ভাবনা
$786,810 Vol.
$786,810 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
হ্যাঁ
84% সম্ভাবনা
$786,810 Vol.
$786,810 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the listed resolution triggers have occurred through mid-September. Donald Trump remains in office following his second term, with no removal or resignation. The 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S. strikes and the prior death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stayed contained without regime change or a direct U.S. invasion. No Taiwan invasion by China, leadership shift in Beijing, Russian move against a NATO member, or Republican Senate supermajority has materialized. Bitcoin has avoided extreme price thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters have struck. Scheduled midterms, ongoing tariff disputes, and regional strikes have not escalated to market-defined thresholds, supporting the current pricing while leaving room for late-year developments.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ভলিউম
$786,810শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the listed resolution triggers have occurred through mid-September. Donald Trump remains in office following his second term, with no removal or resignation. The 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S. strikes and the prior death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stayed contained without regime change or a direct U.S. invasion. No Taiwan invasion by China, leadership shift in Beijing, Russian move against a NATO member, or Republican Senate supermajority has materialized. Bitcoin has avoided extreme price thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters have struck. Scheduled midterms, ongoing tariff disputes, and regional strikes have not escalated to market-defined thresholds, supporting the current pricing while leaving room for late-year developments.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
ভলিউম
$786,810শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 84.5% implied probability to "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the listed resolution triggers have occurred through mid-September. Donald Trump remains in office following his second term, with no removal or resignation. The 2026 Iran conflict, including U.S. strikes and the prior death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stayed contained without regime change or a direct U.S. invasion. No Taiwan invasion by China, leadership shift in Beijing, Russian move against a NATO member, or Republican Senate supermajority has materialized. Bitcoin has avoided extreme price thresholds, and no qualifying natural disasters have struck. Scheduled midterms, ongoing tariff disputes, and regional strikes have not escalated to market-defined thresholds, supporting the current pricing while leaving room for late-year developments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা