The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent, the first hike in over three years, has anchored near-term policy expectations higher amid 3.4 percent year-over-year CPI in August and core readings near 2.4 percent. This shift, reinforced by updated dot-plot projections showing further tightening likely by year-end, has driven the 2-year Treasury yield from the low 4.3 percent area in early September to recent closes around 4.78-4.83 percent. Weak September payrolls of +29,000 and 4.2 percent unemployment offer limited counterbalance, while the October 14 CPI release, next employment report, and any additional Fed communications remain key swing factors for short-term rate pricing and potential yield compression.