**Traders assign a 61.5% probability to “No” because Flávio Bolsonaro has repeatedly conditioned his debate participation on President Lula’s presence, and both frontrunners have declined or failed to confirm multiple pre-first-round events.** The August 23 Band debate proceeded without them after Flávio’s campaign tied attendance to Lula’s, leaving only lower-polling candidates. A larger September 14 consortium debate organized by eleven outlets was canceled on September 8 when neither confirmed by the September 7 deadline, despite four other candidates having done so. Flávio’s team has stated he is prepared to debate Lula directly but has not committed to standalone appearances. With the next scheduled debates on September 27 (Record) and October 1 (Globo) approaching the October 4 first round, the established pattern of mutual non-confirmation sustains the market’s lean toward non-participation.