Lula holds an 84% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, reflecting consistent polling leads of 36-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 29-37% in recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, Nexus, and Meio/Ideia. Flávio Bolsonaro’s 14.5% market share aligns with his position as the primary challenger from the Liberal Party, backed by the ineligible Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, though he trails in first-round scenarios despite closing gaps in runoff hypotheticals. Minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register single-digit support and correspondingly low market prices. Recent September polls show a technical first-round tie in one survey amid declining Lula approval and Supreme Court-related developments, yet aggregate data sustains Lula’s frontrunner status among traders assessing the fragmented field.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডLula 84%
Flavio Bolsonaro 16%
Renan Santos <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$44,845 Vol.
$44,845 Vol.
Lula
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
16%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 84%
Flavio Bolsonaro 16%
Renan Santos <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$44,845 Vol.
$44,845 Vol.
Lula
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
16%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
রেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
রেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/রেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds an 84% implied probability as first-round winner in the October 4, 2026, Brazilian presidential election, reflecting consistent polling leads of 36-40% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 29-37% in recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, Nexus, and Meio/Ideia. Flávio Bolsonaro’s 14.5% market share aligns with his position as the primary challenger from the Liberal Party, backed by the ineligible Jair Bolsonaro’s movement, though he trails in first-round scenarios despite closing gaps in runoff hypotheticals. Minor candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register single-digit support and correspondingly low market prices. Recent September polls show a technical first-round tie in one survey amid declining Lula approval and Supreme Court-related developments, yet aggregate data sustains Lula’s frontrunner status among traders assessing the fragmented field.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডসম্পর্কিত
ফ্লাভিও বোলসোনারো কি ২০২৬ ব্রাজিলিয়ান প্রেসিডেন্ট নির্বাচনের প্রথম দফায় দ্বিতীয় স্থানে শেষ করবেন?
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা