Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডLula 97.2%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.2%
Clariana Barao 1.1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$16,360 Vol.
$16,360 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 97.2%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.2%
Clariana Barao 1.1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$16,360 Vol.
$16,360 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,854 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$832 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$1,169 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$588 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$594 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$566 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$588 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$534 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$556 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$564 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$515 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$529 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
ভলিউম
$16,360শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ভলিউম
$16,360শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a commanding 97.3% implied probability of finishing first in Sergipe’s 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with the Workers’ Party in Northeast Brazil. Incumbent advantages, established voter bases in the region, and limited opposition organization at the state level underpin trader consensus. Historical patterns show strong first-round margins for PT candidates in Sergipe, with recent national polling trends reinforcing rather than eroding that position. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unified opposition turnout, significant shifts in federal resource allocation affecting local economies, or late campaign developments that mobilize non-PT voters. Market pricing treats these as low-probability outcomes within the current resolution window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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