Recent polling averages and forecaster updates have positioned Democrat Amish Shah as the clear favorite in Arizona’s open 1st Congressional District seat. Late October surveys showed Shah ahead by margins of 4 to 6 points, consistent with models projecting a Democratic lean in a district that shifted toward Democrats in recent cycles after long-term Republican incumbent David Schweikert pursued a gubernatorial bid. Shah, an emergency physician and former state lawmaker who defeated the national party’s preferred primary candidate, benefits from stronger cash reserves and endorsements from health and law enforcement groups. Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker endorsed by President Trump, trails amid voter concerns over national political dynamics and the race’s competitive profile on Election Day.