Ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, including repeated strikes, a fragile June 2026 ceasefire that later collapsed, and renewed threats of escalation as of September 2026, has kept formal diplomatic relations severed since 1980. The United States maintains no physical embassy in Iran and relies on Switzerland’s interests section along with a virtual embassy for limited outreach. Recent U.S. travel advisories and Iranian warnings of retaliation underscore the absence of conditions for reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a 2026 reopening reflects these entrenched hostilities and lack of verified progress toward full normalization. A comprehensive peace agreement with verified de-escalation and sanctions relief before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$159,500 交易量
$159,500 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$159,500 交易量
$159,500 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, including repeated strikes, a fragile June 2026 ceasefire that later collapsed, and renewed threats of escalation as of September 2026, has kept formal diplomatic relations severed since 1980. The United States maintains no physical embassy in Iran and relies on Switzerland’s interests section along with a virtual embassy for limited outreach. Recent U.S. travel advisories and Iranian warnings of retaliation underscore the absence of conditions for reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a 2026 reopening reflects these entrenched hostilities and lack of verified progress toward full normalization. A comprehensive peace agreement with verified de-escalation and sanctions relief before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
交易量
$159,500结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, including repeated strikes, a fragile June 2026 ceasefire that later collapsed, and renewed threats of escalation as of September 2026, has kept formal diplomatic relations severed since 1980. The United States maintains no physical embassy in Iran and relies on Switzerland’s interests section along with a virtual embassy for limited outreach. Recent U.S. travel advisories and Iranian warnings of retaliation underscore the absence of conditions for reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a 2026 reopening reflects these entrenched hostilities and lack of verified progress toward full normalization. A comprehensive peace agreement with verified de-escalation and sanctions relief before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$159,500结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETOngoing military conflict between the United States and Iran, including repeated strikes, a fragile June 2026 ceasefire that later collapsed, and renewed threats of escalation as of September 2026, has kept formal diplomatic relations severed since 1980. The United States maintains no physical embassy in Iran and relies on Switzerland’s interests section along with a virtual embassy for limited outreach. Recent U.S. travel advisories and Iranian warnings of retaliation underscore the absence of conditions for reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a 2026 reopening reflects these entrenched hostilities and lack of verified progress toward full normalization. A comprehensive peace agreement with verified de-escalation and sanctions relief before year-end remains the primary scenario that could alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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