**Coalition leads in every recent poll for the November 28 Victorian state election, with two-party preferred margins averaging 54–46 over Labor since the July leadership change.** Multiple surveys from RedBridge/Accent, Resolve, DemosAU, and others place the Liberal–National Coalition on 28–32% primary support, One Nation on 22–25%, Labor on 23–25%, and the Greens around 12–15%. The shift followed sustained voter dissatisfaction with the Labor government’s record on debt, infrastructure costs, and community safety under former Premier Jacinta Allan. Ben Carroll’s replacement of Allan produced no measurable recovery in Labor’s standing or preferred-premier ratings, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a consistent edge. One Nation’s primary strength fragments the vote but channels preferences toward the Coalition on two-party measures, reinforcing trader pricing that positions the Coalition as the clear frontrunner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Liberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.3%
Greens <1%
$14,681 交易量
$14,681 交易量
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
71%
Labor
22%
One Nation
9%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.3%
Greens <1%
$14,681 交易量
$14,681 交易量
2026-11-28
Liberal–National
$6,984 交易量
71%
Labor
$3,487 交易量
22%
One Nation
$3,600 交易量
9%
Greens
$611 交易量
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Coalition leads in every recent poll for the November 28 Victorian state election, with two-party preferred margins averaging 54–46 over Labor since the July leadership change.** Multiple surveys from RedBridge/Accent, Resolve, DemosAU, and others place the Liberal–National Coalition on 28–32% primary support, One Nation on 22–25%, Labor on 23–25%, and the Greens around 12–15%. The shift followed sustained voter dissatisfaction with the Labor government’s record on debt, infrastructure costs, and community safety under former Premier Jacinta Allan. Ben Carroll’s replacement of Allan produced no measurable recovery in Labor’s standing or preferred-premier ratings, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a consistent edge. One Nation’s primary strength fragments the vote but channels preferences toward the Coalition on two-party measures, reinforcing trader pricing that positions the Coalition as the clear frontrunner.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
交易量
$14,681结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETThe 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Coalition leads in every recent poll for the November 28 Victorian state election, with two-party preferred margins averaging 54–46 over Labor since the July leadership change.** Multiple surveys from RedBridge/Accent, Resolve, DemosAU, and others place the Liberal–National Coalition on 28–32% primary support, One Nation on 22–25%, Labor on 23–25%, and the Greens around 12–15%. The shift followed sustained voter dissatisfaction with the Labor government’s record on debt, infrastructure costs, and community safety under former Premier Jacinta Allan. Ben Carroll’s replacement of Allan produced no measurable recovery in Labor’s standing or preferred-premier ratings, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a consistent edge. One Nation’s primary strength fragments the vote but channels preferences toward the Coalition on two-party measures, reinforcing trader pricing that positions the Coalition as the clear frontrunner.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
交易量
$14,681结束日期
2026-11-28市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET**Coalition leads in every recent poll for the November 28 Victorian state election, with two-party preferred margins averaging 54–46 over Labor since the July leadership change.** Multiple surveys from RedBridge/Accent, Resolve, DemosAU, and others place the Liberal–National Coalition on 28–32% primary support, One Nation on 22–25%, Labor on 23–25%, and the Greens around 12–15%. The shift followed sustained voter dissatisfaction with the Labor government’s record on debt, infrastructure costs, and community safety under former Premier Jacinta Allan. Ben Carroll’s replacement of Allan produced no measurable recovery in Labor’s standing or preferred-premier ratings, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a consistent edge. One Nation’s primary strength fragments the vote but channels preferences toward the Coalition on two-party measures, reinforcing trader pricing that positions the Coalition as the clear frontrunner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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