"间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？" is a 每日 prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether SPY's opening price on October 15 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its closing price on the most recent prior trading day. The current market probability is 100% for "下跌." A price of 100% means the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live SPY price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？"是 Polymarket 上一个活跃的短期市场。随着每日窗口期的推进，交易量可能会快速累积——尽早入场，在窗口关闭前帮助设定赔率。

To trade on "间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？," decide whether you believe SPY's opening price on October 15 will be higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its closing price on the most recent prior trading day. Buy "Up" if you think it will open higher, or "Down" if you think it will open lower. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

此每日窗口已关闭并结算。最终结果为"下跌"。使用本页顶部的时间导航查看相邻窗口或找到当前活跃市场。

The "间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？" market resolves by comparing SPY's opening price on October 15 with its closing price on the most recent prior trading day, using Pyth 1-minute candle prices. If the October 15 open is higher, the outcome is "Up"; if lower, "Down"; if equal, the market resolves 50-50. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each "间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？" page shows real-time Up/Down probabilities reflecting trader sentiment on whether SPY will open higher or lower on October 15 than its close on the most recent prior trading day. Use the date navigation features at the top of the page to browse past and upcoming daily windows. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.

Polymarket 的赔率由真实交易者用真金白银支持其判断来设定。“间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？”仍在为此窗口积累交易基础，因此当前 Up/Down 概率可能仅反映少量交易。随着窗口关闭前更多参与者的加入，赔率将变得越来越稳健。有关 Polymarket 预测准确度的最新统计数据，请访问 准确度页面。

要在"间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？"上进行第一笔交易，请注册免费的 Polymarket 账户，并使用加密货币、信用卡或借记卡或银行转账充值。账户充值后，返回本页——或通过顶部导航栏导航至当前活跃的每日窗口——选择"买入 Up"或"买入 Down"，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你是预测市场的新手，请点击任何 Polymarket 页面顶部的"运作方式"链接。

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "下跌" in the "间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that SPY will open 下跌 from its prior close. If you buy "下跌" shares at 100¢ and SPY opens in that direction, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If SPY moves the other way, those shares are worth $0. Prices can shift as SPY's price action unfolds toward the open.

此每日窗口已于（4:00PM ET October 15）关闭并结算。最终结果为"下跌"。使用顶部导航栏查看相邻窗口或找到当前活跃市场。

"间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？"市场有 2 条评论，交易者在此分享分析并对 SPY 实时价格变动做出反应。向下滚动到评论区阅读其他参与者的观点。你还可以查看"活动"标签以获取此窗口的实时交易动态。

Polymarket 是全球最大的预测市场，你可以在此了解最新动态并利用自己对现实事件的知识获利。交易者买卖涵盖政治选举、加密货币、金融、体育、科技和文化等各种主题的结果份额——包括像"间谍在10月15日打开还是关闭？"这样的每日 SPY 方向市场。价格反映由金融信念支持的实时概率。