Recent reports that SpaceX is exploring a $40 billion debt raise to fund Nvidia chip purchases have weighed on sentiment, elevating the 47.2% implied probability for a close below $135 amid widened credit spreads and after-hours pressure on Oct 7. The stock had surged 7.6% to $171.09 on Oct 5 following Morgan Stanley’s reaffirmation of a $300 target, citing undervalued AI infrastructure and upcoming Starship milestones, before pulling back toward $167–$172 levels. Trader consensus appears to balance this momentum against heavy capital needs, with the $165–$170 band at 35% reflecting near-term consolidation risks ahead of late-October earnings and further test flights. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positioning on these catalysts.