The International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains outstanding, yet enforcement has not materialized across Rome Statute states. The United States, a non-party to the court, has imposed sanctions on ICC personnel and received explicit assurances from the Trump administration that Netanyahu will not be detained on American soil during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly appearance. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings, including an active corruption trial, have produced no custody orders. Trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates stems from these structural barriers—diplomatic immunity for heads of state, U.S. policy alignment, and the absence of any state willing to execute the warrant—while acknowledging that a shift in alliances or enforcement by a signatory country could alter outcomes within the market window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,842 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
<1%
12月31日
6%
$25,842 交易量
9月30日
$19,109 交易量
<1%
12月31日
$6,733 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains outstanding, yet enforcement has not materialized across Rome Statute states. The United States, a non-party to the court, has imposed sanctions on ICC personnel and received explicit assurances from the Trump administration that Netanyahu will not be detained on American soil during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly appearance. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings, including an active corruption trial, have produced no custody orders. Trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates stems from these structural barriers—diplomatic immunity for heads of state, U.S. policy alignment, and the absence of any state willing to execute the warrant—while acknowledging that a shift in alliances or enforcement by a signatory country could alter outcomes within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
交易量
$25,842结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains outstanding, yet enforcement has not materialized across Rome Statute states. The United States, a non-party to the court, has imposed sanctions on ICC personnel and received explicit assurances from the Trump administration that Netanyahu will not be detained on American soil during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly appearance. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings, including an active corruption trial, have produced no custody orders. Trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates stems from these structural barriers—diplomatic immunity for heads of state, U.S. policy alignment, and the absence of any state willing to execute the warrant—while acknowledging that a shift in alliances or enforcement by a signatory country could alter outcomes within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$25,842结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETThe International Criminal Court’s November 2024 arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza remains outstanding, yet enforcement has not materialized across Rome Statute states. The United States, a non-party to the court, has imposed sanctions on ICC personnel and received explicit assurances from the Trump administration that Netanyahu will not be detained on American soil during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly appearance. Domestic Israeli legal proceedings, including an active corruption trial, have produced no custody orders. Trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates stems from these structural barriers—diplomatic immunity for heads of state, U.S. policy alignment, and the absence of any state willing to execute the warrant—while acknowledging that a shift in alliances or enforcement by a signatory country could alter outcomes within the market window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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