**Recent polling consistently projects Likud winning 20–27 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats. Multiple surveys from September 2026, including those by Direct Polls, Lazar Research, and others, show the party trailing or close to Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot) while its broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in coverage include prolonged public focus on security outcomes from the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran conflicts, coalition strains over issues such as Haredi conscription, and the emergence of new or strengthened opposition lists after candidate slates were finalized in early September. Netanyahu has sought to consolidate right-wing allies ahead of the vote, but average projections have remained stable in showing a reduced Likud total. Resolution hinges on final vote counts; late shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the sustained polling trend.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于92% 概率
$17,453 交易量
$17,453 交易量
2026-10-26
92% 概率
$17,453 交易量
$17,453 交易量
2026-10-26
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling consistently projects Likud winning 20–27 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats.
Multiple surveys from September 2026, including those by Direct Polls, Lazar Research, and others, show the party trailing or close to Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot) while its broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in coverage include prolonged public focus on security outcomes from the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran conflicts, coalition strains over issues such as Haredi conscription, and the emergence of new or strengthened opposition lists after candidate slates were finalized in early September.
Netanyahu has sought to consolidate right-wing allies ahead of the vote, but average projections have remained stable in showing a reduced Likud total. Resolution hinges on final vote counts; late shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the sustained polling trend.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$17,453结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling consistently projects Likud winning 20–27 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats.
Multiple surveys from September 2026, including those by Direct Polls, Lazar Research, and others, show the party trailing or close to Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot) while its broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in coverage include prolonged public focus on security outcomes from the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran conflicts, coalition strains over issues such as Haredi conscription, and the emergence of new or strengthened opposition lists after candidate slates were finalized in early September.
Netanyahu has sought to consolidate right-wing allies ahead of the vote, but average projections have remained stable in showing a reduced Likud total. Resolution hinges on final vote counts; late shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the sustained polling trend.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$17,453结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET**Recent polling consistently projects Likud winning 20–27 Knesset seats in the October 27, 2026 election, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 vote.** This gap underpins the 91.5% implied probability that Likud will lose seats. Multiple surveys from September 2026, including those by Direct Polls, Lazar Research, and others, show the party trailing or close to Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot) while its broader right-wing coalition bloc hovers around 50–55 seats—short of the 61-seat majority threshold. Factors cited in coverage include prolonged public focus on security outcomes from the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran conflicts, coalition strains over issues such as Haredi conscription, and the emergence of new or strengthened opposition lists after candidate slates were finalized in early September. Netanyahu has sought to consolidate right-wing allies ahead of the vote, but average projections have remained stable in showing a reduced Likud total. Resolution hinges on final vote counts; late shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the sustained polling trend.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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