Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while IAEA inspectors remain denied access since June 2025, preventing verification of the 440-kilogram stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. The September 2026 IAEA board referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for noncompliance reinforces trader views that no operational breakout to weapons-grade material is feasible before 2027. Ongoing construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and fragile ceasefire talks add uncertainty but do not alter the short timeline or infrastructure setbacks. A rapid decision to weaponize existing material or undetected recovery of centrifuges could still shift probabilities if verified.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,281,991 交易量
$1,281,991 交易量
是
$1,281,991 交易量
$1,281,991 交易量
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while IAEA inspectors remain denied access since June 2025, preventing verification of the 440-kilogram stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. The September 2026 IAEA board referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for noncompliance reinforces trader views that no operational breakout to weapons-grade material is feasible before 2027. Ongoing construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and fragile ceasefire talks add uncertainty but do not alter the short timeline or infrastructure setbacks. A rapid decision to weaponize existing material or undetected recovery of centrifuges could still shift probabilities if verified.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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