Recent IAEA referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance, combined with sustained denial of inspector access to strike-damaged enrichment sites, underscores the program's significant degradation from 2025–2026 U.S. and Israeli military actions that destroyed or buried key centrifuges and near-weapons-grade material stockpiles. Traders view these setbacks, alongside Iran's current inability to resume verifiable enrichment or weaponization activities, as substantial barriers to completing the technical steps required for a nuclear test within the narrow remaining window. Heightened international scrutiny and diplomatic isolation further reduce near-term incentives or feasibility for such a step. A rapid undetected reconstitution effort or abrupt policy shift amid escalating regional tensions could still alter this outlook before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$257,260 交易量
$257,260 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$257,260 交易量
$257,260 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent IAEA referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance, combined with sustained denial of inspector access to strike-damaged enrichment sites, underscores the program's significant degradation from 2025–2026 U.S. and Israeli military actions that destroyed or buried key centrifuges and near-weapons-grade material stockpiles. Traders view these setbacks, alongside Iran's current inability to resume verifiable enrichment or weaponization activities, as substantial barriers to completing the technical steps required for a nuclear test within the narrow remaining window. Heightened international scrutiny and diplomatic isolation further reduce near-term incentives or feasibility for such a step. A rapid undetected reconstitution effort or abrupt policy shift amid escalating regional tensions could still alter this outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$257,260结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent IAEA referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance, combined with sustained denial of inspector access to strike-damaged enrichment sites, underscores the program's significant degradation from 2025–2026 U.S. and Israeli military actions that destroyed or buried key centrifuges and near-weapons-grade material stockpiles. Traders view these setbacks, alongside Iran's current inability to resume verifiable enrichment or weaponization activities, as substantial barriers to completing the technical steps required for a nuclear test within the narrow remaining window. Heightened international scrutiny and diplomatic isolation further reduce near-term incentives or feasibility for such a step. A rapid undetected reconstitution effort or abrupt policy shift amid escalating regional tensions could still alter this outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$257,260结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRecent IAEA referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance, combined with sustained denial of inspector access to strike-damaged enrichment sites, underscores the program's significant degradation from 2025–2026 U.S. and Israeli military actions that destroyed or buried key centrifuges and near-weapons-grade material stockpiles. Traders view these setbacks, alongside Iran's current inability to resume verifiable enrichment or weaponization activities, as substantial barriers to completing the technical steps required for a nuclear test within the narrow remaining window. Heightened international scrutiny and diplomatic isolation further reduce near-term incentives or feasibility for such a step. A rapid undetected reconstitution effort or abrupt policy shift amid escalating regional tensions could still alter this outlook before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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