Iran's leadership faces acute internal divisions amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026 and installed his son Mojtaba in the role. Hardline factions, including figures like Hossein Taeb, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliamentary leaders, and the Supreme National Security Council of a soft coup by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—and pursuing a fragile interim peace deal. A July rogue operation attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, unauthorized by the president or IRGC commander, derailed negotiations and reignited escalation, with fresh exchanges reported in September. These factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, and questions over authority create the key backdrop for assessments of regime stability risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,132,659 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
10%
$2,132,659 交易量
12月31日
$91,434 交易量
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's leadership faces acute internal divisions amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026 and installed his son Mojtaba in the role. Hardline factions, including figures like Hossein Taeb, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliamentary leaders, and the Supreme National Security Council of a soft coup by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—and pursuing a fragile interim peace deal. A July rogue operation attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, unauthorized by the president or IRGC commander, derailed negotiations and reignited escalation, with fresh exchanges reported in September. These factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, and questions over authority create the key backdrop for assessments of regime stability risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,132,659结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's leadership faces acute internal divisions amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026 and installed his son Mojtaba in the role. Hardline factions, including figures like Hossein Taeb, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliamentary leaders, and the Supreme National Security Council of a soft coup by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—and pursuing a fragile interim peace deal. A July rogue operation attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, unauthorized by the president or IRGC commander, derailed negotiations and reignited escalation, with fresh exchanges reported in September. These factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, and questions over authority create the key backdrop for assessments of regime stability risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,132,659结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETIran's leadership faces acute internal divisions amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026 and installed his son Mojtaba in the role. Hardline factions, including figures like Hossein Taeb, have accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliamentary leaders, and the Supreme National Security Council of a soft coup by sidelining the new supreme leader—who has remained largely absent from public view—and pursuing a fragile interim peace deal. A July rogue operation attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, unauthorized by the president or IRGC commander, derailed negotiations and reignited escalation, with fresh exchanges reported in September. These factional tensions, economic pressures from sanctions and blockades, and questions over authority create the key backdrop for assessments of regime stability risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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