Recent European model consensus from ECMWF and ICON runs points to a frontal boundary crossing southern Germany on October 2, bringing widespread cloud cover, light showers, and a modest influx of cooler maritime air that caps afternoon temperatures. This setup restricts surface heating, with ensemble spreads centering on daily maxima of 18–20 °C under mostly overcast skies and light northwesterly flow. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 19 °C, 18 °C, and 20 °C, reflecting typical model uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any brief breaks that could allow slightly more insolation. These values sit above the early-October climatological average of 15–17 °C, underscoring the mild but not exceptional conditions expected before cooler air arrives later in the week.