The 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
是
3% 概率
$18,361,304 交易量
$18,361,304 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$18,361,304 交易量
$18,361,304 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$18,361,304结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,361,304结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETThe 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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