The Bureau of Economic Analysis release on October 29 confirmed September 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.1% year-over-year, up from 3.0% in August and precisely matching economist consensus forecasts. Monthly core prices rose 0.3%, while headline PCE accelerated to 3.6%. This outcome aligned with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remaining above its 2% target amid solid consumer spending and a 3.4% annualized Q3 GDP print that exceeded expectations. Trader consensus at 100% probability for 3.1% reflects the data’s alignment with prior trends and pre-release indicators, though any material revision in subsequent months or shifts in labor market readings could still influence longer-term rate path expectations.