The Bank of Korea’s October 22 monetary policy decision carries a market-implied 78.5% probability of no change at the current 3.00% base rate, with a 19.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This pricing reflects the central bank’s explicit stance following consecutive 25-basis-point increases in July and August, as policymakers assess lagged effects on inflation and financial stability amid elevated household debt and Seoul-area housing prices. August CPI accelerated to 3.1% year-over-year, above the 2% target, while core inflation reached 3.4%, supported by robust AI-driven semiconductor exports and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts. The recent Federal Reserve tightening, which widened the Korea-U.S. rate differential to 100 basis points, adds external pressure on the won and imported inflation, yet BOK communications and board minutes emphasize monitoring domestic conditions before further action. November remains the more consensus timing for any additional tightening among analysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于不变 79%
加息25个基点 20%
加息50个基点以上 2.0%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$12,291 交易量
$12,291 交易量
2026-10-21
降息50个基点以上
1%
降息25个基点
1%
不变
79%
加息25个基点
20%
加息50个基点以上
2%
不变 79%
加息25个基点 20%
加息50个基点以上 2.0%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$12,291 交易量
$12,291 交易量
2026-10-21
降息50个基点以上
$366 交易量
1%
降息25个基点
$411 交易量
1%
不变
$6,740 交易量
79%
加息25个基点
$4,413 交易量
20%
加息50个基点以上
$361 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s October 22 monetary policy decision carries a market-implied 78.5% probability of no change at the current 3.00% base rate, with a 19.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This pricing reflects the central bank’s explicit stance following consecutive 25-basis-point increases in July and August, as policymakers assess lagged effects on inflation and financial stability amid elevated household debt and Seoul-area housing prices. August CPI accelerated to 3.1% year-over-year, above the 2% target, while core inflation reached 3.4%, supported by robust AI-driven semiconductor exports and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts. The recent Federal Reserve tightening, which widened the Korea-U.S. rate differential to 100 basis points, adds external pressure on the won and imported inflation, yet BOK communications and board minutes emphasize monitoring domestic conditions before further action. November remains the more consensus timing for any additional tightening among analysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
交易量
$12,291结束日期
2026-10-22市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s October 22 monetary policy decision carries a market-implied 78.5% probability of no change at the current 3.00% base rate, with a 19.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This pricing reflects the central bank’s explicit stance following consecutive 25-basis-point increases in July and August, as policymakers assess lagged effects on inflation and financial stability amid elevated household debt and Seoul-area housing prices. August CPI accelerated to 3.1% year-over-year, above the 2% target, while core inflation reached 3.4%, supported by robust AI-driven semiconductor exports and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts. The recent Federal Reserve tightening, which widened the Korea-U.S. rate differential to 100 basis points, adds external pressure on the won and imported inflation, yet BOK communications and board minutes emphasize monitoring domestic conditions before further action. November remains the more consensus timing for any additional tightening among analysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
交易量
$12,291结束日期
2026-10-22市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETThe Bank of Korea’s October 22 monetary policy decision carries a market-implied 78.5% probability of no change at the current 3.00% base rate, with a 19.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This pricing reflects the central bank’s explicit stance following consecutive 25-basis-point increases in July and August, as policymakers assess lagged effects on inflation and financial stability amid elevated household debt and Seoul-area housing prices. August CPI accelerated to 3.1% year-over-year, above the 2% target, while core inflation reached 3.4%, supported by robust AI-driven semiconductor exports and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts. The recent Federal Reserve tightening, which widened the Korea-U.S. rate differential to 100 basis points, adds external pressure on the won and imported inflation, yet BOK communications and board minutes emphasize monitoring domestic conditions before further action. November remains the more consensus timing for any additional tightening among analysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题