**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 95.6% reflects the steep procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices serve until age 75 with strong institutional protections; removal for crimes of responsibility requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold never met in democratic history despite periodic requests. Recent developments center on the Banco Master case and related internal STF disputes. Revelations of messages involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, plus conflicts with Justice André Mendonça over investigation handling, have generated over 100 impeachment petitions (dozens targeting Moraes). Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Opposition figures, including Sen. Rogério Marinho, have proposed Senate rule changes to bypass the president's gatekeeping role via 49 signatures, but these face uncertain prospects and would still need plenary support amid a polarized environment ahead of October 2026 elections. Public polling shows notable backing for accountability measures, and many Senate candidates endorse scrutiny of the court. However, the current Senate composition, combined with the requirement for a supermajority and the compressed timeline before 2027, sustains high trader confidence that no removal will occur. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid passage and application of regimental reforms enabling faster processing, a major escalation producing unexpected cross-party support, or a late-breaking development forcing Senate action before year-end—though these remain low-probability given institutional inertia and historical precedent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$91,769 交易量
$91,769 交易量
是
$91,769 交易量
$91,769 交易量
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 95.6% reflects the steep procedural and political barriers to removing any STF justice by impeachment before the end of 2026.** Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices serve until age 75 with strong institutional protections; removal for crimes of responsibility requires Senate initiation and a two-thirds vote (54 of 81 senators), a threshold never met in democratic history despite periodic requests. Recent developments center on the Banco Master case and related internal STF disputes. Revelations of messages involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, plus conflicts with Justice André Mendonça over investigation handling, have generated over 100 impeachment petitions (dozens targeting Moraes). Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Opposition figures, including Sen. Rogério Marinho, have proposed Senate rule changes to bypass the president's gatekeeping role via 49 signatures, but these face uncertain prospects and would still need plenary support amid a polarized environment ahead of October 2026 elections. Public polling shows notable backing for accountability measures, and many Senate candidates endorse scrutiny of the court. However, the current Senate composition, combined with the requirement for a supermajority and the compressed timeline before 2027, sustains high trader confidence that no removal will occur. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid passage and application of regimental reforms enabling faster processing, a major escalation producing unexpected cross-party support, or a late-breaking development forcing Senate action before year-end—though these remain low-probability given institutional inertia and historical precedent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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