**The high implied probability of no STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from the Senate’s procedural gatekeeping and the two-thirds vote threshold of 54 out of 81 senators required for removal.** Over 100 impeachment requests have accumulated, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations from the Banco Master investigation and internal court conflicts involving André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Brazil has never removed a sitting STF justice through this process, and the current congressional alignment, including Lula administration allies, continues to block progress. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter the balance, but the short timeline before 2027 and the need for the Senate president to initiate proceedings limit realistic pathways. Late-breaking developments, such as new evidence prompting rapid action or a decisive post-election shift enabling quick proceedings, remain the main variables that could still influence outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$88,176 交易量
$88,176 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$88,176 交易量
$88,176 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The high implied probability of no STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from the Senate’s procedural gatekeeping and the two-thirds vote threshold of 54 out of 81 senators required for removal.** Over 100 impeachment requests have accumulated, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations from the Banco Master investigation and internal court conflicts involving André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Brazil has never removed a sitting STF justice through this process, and the current congressional alignment, including Lula administration allies, continues to block progress. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter the balance, but the short timeline before 2027 and the need for the Senate president to initiate proceedings limit realistic pathways. Late-breaking developments, such as new evidence prompting rapid action or a decisive post-election shift enabling quick proceedings, remain the main variables that could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
交易量
$88,176结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The high implied probability of no STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from the Senate’s procedural gatekeeping and the two-thirds vote threshold of 54 out of 81 senators required for removal.** Over 100 impeachment requests have accumulated, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations from the Banco Master investigation and internal court conflicts involving André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Brazil has never removed a sitting STF justice through this process, and the current congressional alignment, including Lula administration allies, continues to block progress. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter the balance, but the short timeline before 2027 and the need for the Senate president to initiate proceedings limit realistic pathways. Late-breaking developments, such as new evidence prompting rapid action or a decisive post-election shift enabling quick proceedings, remain the main variables that could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$88,176结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET**The high implied probability of no STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from the Senate’s procedural gatekeeping and the two-thirds vote threshold of 54 out of 81 senators required for removal.** Over 100 impeachment requests have accumulated, many targeting Alexandre de Moraes amid recent revelations from the Banco Master investigation and internal court conflicts involving André Mendonça, yet Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance them. Brazil has never removed a sitting STF justice through this process, and the current congressional alignment, including Lula administration allies, continues to block progress. Upcoming October 2026 Senate elections could alter the balance, but the short timeline before 2027 and the need for the Senate president to initiate proceedings limit realistic pathways. Late-breaking developments, such as new evidence prompting rapid action or a decisive post-election shift enabling quick proceedings, remain the main variables that could still influence outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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