Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning his seat amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into a £5 million pre-2024 donation and related financial support. He secured re-election with 63.3% of the vote against a field dominated by novelty candidates, as major parties boycotted the contest. The standards commissioner resumed its probe immediately after the result, raising the theoretical prospect of sanctions that could activate a recall petition. However, completing the investigation, any Commons vote, petition process, and resulting vacancy would require several months at minimum. With no other indications of an imminent vacancy or resignation before year-end, traders assign an 89.5% probability against another by-election occurring in 2026.