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2026年9月10日
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查看过去 24 小时内波动最大的预测盘口

8月31日巴布·曼德布海峡的平均每日过境次数会少于25次吗?

以色列会在9月9日对黎巴嫩采取军事行动吗?


Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?

美国与伊朗在9月7日前达成有效停火?


雷南·桑托斯会在2026年巴西总统大选第一轮中获得第三名吗?

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?

BSW会获得不到全部有效第二选票的3%吗?

基民盟将在所有有效第二选票中获得17%到20%吗?


到2026年12月31日,Steve Witkoff会参加一次美国与伊朗的外交会议吗?

巴布-曼德布海峡到10月31日是否实际上已经关闭?

2026年11月30日前举行俄乌和平谈判?

到2026年9月30日,俄罗斯会进入米科拉伊夫卡吗?

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?


林克党会在2026年柏林州选举中赢得最多席位吗?

到2026年9月30日,俄罗斯和乌克兰会举行任何外交会谈吗?

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?


路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦会在2026年巴西总统选举第一轮中获得第二名吗?
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新预测盘口
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
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Trump promises a $5,000 dividend for every U.S. adult if Republicans retain control of both the House & Senate in the November midterms.
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Ex-Meta AI researcher warns OpenAI could “cripple an entire nation if they wanted” by unleashing an unaligned swarm of autonomous AI agents.
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Anthropic’s latest economic report warns that coders may need to learn to plumb toilets.
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Trump reveals drug smuggling through the Gulf of America into the United States is down 97%.
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Anthropic researcher claims he would “burn his equity to the ground” for just a 1% greater chance humanity survives advanced AI.
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Bernie Sanders will convene a bipartisan Senate briefing next week on the “extraordinary dangers” posed by AI. — Axios
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A fifth Lindsay Clancy juror speaks out, saying he was “devastated” the jury could not acquit her & accusing the lone holdout of failing to cite evidence for his position.
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks at the National Baptist Convention in Florida.
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Florida woman spends 13 days in jail after Flock camera data wrongly tied her to a deadly crash.
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James Talarico admits he “missed the mark” with his past claim that there are 6 biological sexes, now saying there are two.
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Mark Zuckerberg faces backlash after Meta takes over the @muse Instagram handle for its new AI product, forcing the world-famous band Muse to switch to @museband.

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Apple unveils “Live Rewind” for Apple Watch, letting users instantly transcribe the previous 15 seconds of conversation & ask Siri about what was said.
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Odds John Fetterman leaves the Democrats before midterms surge after he makes a surprise appearance by video at the GOP convention. 20% chance.

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Marco Rubio reveals he has “no plans at this time” to run for president in 2028, while leaving the door open to a future bid. — NBC
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U.S. judge denies Andrew & Tristan Tate’s bid for release from Miami jail as they fight extradition to the U.K., calling them a “quintessential flight risk.”
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Trump assures dangerous AI systems could simply be shut down with a “little gear,” downplaying fears of an existential AI threat.
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Apple reveals the iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max can reach 50% battery in just 15 minutes of charging.
新预测盘口
What will Trump say during Night 1 of the RNC Convention?
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𝕏 adds official NFL rosters directly to team profiles, following the unmasking & arrest of fake 49ers player Daejon Love.
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U.S. Treasury uncovers $17,500,000,000.00 in suspected fraudulent health care activity.
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ICE launches a nationwide tipline for reporting suspected commercial driver’s license fraud.
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Hunter Biden rejects rugpull claims, insisting he has not made a “single dollar” & attributing the collapse to weak liquidity & technical issues.
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Anthropic is reportedly building a "predictive" surveillance system to monitor anti-AI activists, in some cases alerting police before a crime occurs.
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Military aide accidentally deploys the emergency slide on Trump’s new Air Force One, delaying his departure to the GOP convention in Dallas. — NYT

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Prestigious Massachusetts college Wellesley will offer free tuition to domestic students from families earning $200,000 or less annually, starting next year.
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Marco Rubio annnounces the U.S. will seek $45 million in additional security funding for Ecuador to combat drug trafficking & cartels.
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Anthropic claims Claude can now autonomously improve AI alignment, finding successful fixes across 10 failure categories without hurting model performance.
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Flávio Bolsonaro surges in the odds to win Brazil’s presidential race, potentially extending Latin America’s rightward shift. 47% chance.

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Grok can now manage users' Coinbase portfolios from chat, including balance checks, market analysis, & buying, selling, or canceling crypto trades.
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Internet accuses Apple of photoshopping "freakishly long" fingers into its iPhone Duo marketing, to make the massive foldable look easier to hold one-handed.

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Amazon reportedly expected to be largely shielded from liability for the Miami cargo plane crash.
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Apple’s 2 terabyte iPhone Duo will cost $3,199, making it the company’s most expensive phone ever.
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Venture capitalist Peter Levin predicts Pokémon cards would become the “global currency” after an apocalypse, arguing their accessibility & scarcity make them uniquely suited for trade.

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AI jailbreaker Pliny vibecodes a “meth lab simulator” using GPT-6 Astra, modeling the real drug production process inside an interactive virtual lab.
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Massachusetts moves to restrict data center development, requiring local community agreements before projects can receive state permits.
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OpenAI to partner with Samsung on next-generation chips, including joint research and production work on new AI processors.
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FDA announces recall of Kofinas garlic-infused extra virgin olive oil, warning it contains an ingredient not approved for culinary use.
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U.S. Treasury announces it will buy back up to $6,000,000,000.00 in long-term government debt Thursday.
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Apple unveils the iPhone Duo, its first foldable phone, with an 80% larger screen than iPhone 18 Pro.
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Apple unveils “Health Age” for Apple Watch Series 12 & Ultra 4, giving users an estimate of their biological age.

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Apple unveils “AirPods 5,” with 50% more noise cancellation & improved AI features.

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New Apple CEO John Ternus debuts the iPhone 18 Pro & Pro Max, promising major advances in AI, performance, battery, & camera.

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UK’s new “mansion tax” will target homes worth over £2 million, with homeowners given 6 months to appeal.
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Trump administration allows more than 170,000 Salvadorans to keep Temporary Protected Status “for now.”
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UN nuclear watchdog formally reports Iran to the Security Council for the first time in 20 years over breaches of its non-proliferation obligations.
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Legal AI startup Harvey raises $550 million at a valuation of $15,600,000,000.00.
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Lindsay Clancy attorney Kevin Reddington condemns online critics for what he calls “evil” comments about her.
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U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announces major federal crackdown against an alleged Telegram scam marketplace with more than 650,000 users.
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Ken Paxton pulls even with Talarico in the Texas Senate race, as Trump kicks off the first-ever GOP midterm convention in Dallas today. 50% chance.

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Elon Musk declares AI & robots will “more than double the global economy in less than 10 years.”
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U.S. AI safety regulation odds remain low, despite an Anthropic alignment lead warning AI could “kill all humans within the next decade.” 9% chance.
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Amid a wave of bizarre fruit fly brain experiments, one vibecoder builds a simulation where the fly can “just fly around forever in fruit fly heaven.”
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Hunter Biden accused of "rugpulling" his memecoin, after its value collapses over 99% immediately after launch.
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India launches nationwide food-safety crackdown, with “unprecedented” raids & restaurant shutdowns.
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Trump administration orders Ford to sever all major Chinese business ties, citing “profound” national security concerns.
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AI music startup Suno rolls out new AI music models built with industry partners, introducing royalty payments to labels & publishers whose music rights are used.
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Michigan rabbis issue “nonnegotiable” demands for Abdul El-Sayed, including support for Jewish safety & sovereignty in Israel.
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Treasury Sec. Bessent warns “nothing else would matter” if China wins the AI race, saying even America’s massive defense budget would not be enough.
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Investigators reveal the Amazon Air jet’s speed brakes & thrust reversers were not deployed before it overran a Miami runway & crashed into nearby vehicles.

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Giant sinkhole opens at Nicolas Cage’s $11 million Malibu home, forcing evacuations at more than 30 nearby properties.

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Anthropic’s new “extreme” AI scenario projects 15% annual GDP growth, with the economy doubling every 4.5 years as most knowledge work is automated.
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2 London apartments linked to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei are being put up for sale after their mortgages reportedly went into default.