Bilateral security cooperation, including Mexico's unanimous Senate approval for 139 U.S. troops to conduct joint training exercises in Chihuahua starting September 20, 2026, alongside ongoing anti-drone operations and border patrols, has reinforced trader expectations against an invasion. Despite Trump administration designations of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, tariff pressures, and repeated statements favoring unilateral action on migration and drug trafficking, no offensive military operations to seize Mexican territory have occurred. The USMCA review process and low unauthorized border crossings further anchor diplomatic engagement. A shift toward invasion would require a major, unforeseen escalation such as direct attacks on U.S. forces or a formal congressional authorization overriding current cooperation frameworks, events that remain outside verified developments through late 2026.