The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile reliability. Trader consensus prices low probabilities for a test by late 2026 because no such detonation has occurred despite statements from President Trump directing preparation for testing “on an equal basis” with accused low-yield activities by China and Russia. Senior officials have confirmed ongoing internal reviews of options, including underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, but emphasized that no specific program has been approved and timelines for readiness remain 24–36 months. Recent non-explosive activities, such as subcritical experiments, plutonium research at facilities like Lawrence Livermore, and conventional bunker-buster validation tests, align with modernization without breaching the moratorium. Scheduled diplomatic and arms-control discussions, plus congressional oversight, continue to shape near-term decisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$795,441 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
6%
$795,441 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,710 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile reliability. Trader consensus prices low probabilities for a test by late 2026 because no such detonation has occurred despite statements from President Trump directing preparation for testing “on an equal basis” with accused low-yield activities by China and Russia. Senior officials have confirmed ongoing internal reviews of options, including underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, but emphasized that no specific program has been approved and timelines for readiness remain 24–36 months. Recent non-explosive activities, such as subcritical experiments, plutonium research at facilities like Lawrence Livermore, and conventional bunker-buster validation tests, align with modernization without breaching the moratorium. Scheduled diplomatic and arms-control discussions, plus congressional oversight, continue to shape near-term decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$795,441結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile reliability. Trader consensus prices low probabilities for a test by late 2026 because no such detonation has occurred despite statements from President Trump directing preparation for testing “on an equal basis” with accused low-yield activities by China and Russia. Senior officials have confirmed ongoing internal reviews of options, including underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, but emphasized that no specific program has been approved and timelines for readiness remain 24–36 months. Recent non-explosive activities, such as subcritical experiments, plutonium research at facilities like Lawrence Livermore, and conventional bunker-buster validation tests, align with modernization without breaching the moratorium. Scheduled diplomatic and arms-control discussions, plus congressional oversight, continue to shape near-term decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$795,441結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThe U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile reliability. Trader consensus prices low probabilities for a test by late 2026 because no such detonation has occurred despite statements from President Trump directing preparation for testing “on an equal basis” with accused low-yield activities by China and Russia. Senior officials have confirmed ongoing internal reviews of options, including underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site, but emphasized that no specific program has been approved and timelines for readiness remain 24–36 months. Recent non-explosive activities, such as subcritical experiments, plutonium research at facilities like Lawrence Livermore, and conventional bunker-buster validation tests, align with modernization without breaching the moratorium. Scheduled diplomatic and arms-control discussions, plus congressional oversight, continue to shape near-term decisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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