Recent polling averages place the Partido Popular (PP) ahead of the PSOE by roughly five points, positioning it to secure the largest share of seats in the November 29 Congress vote and likely a governing majority with Vox support. The snap election, triggered after Pedro Sánchez’s housing decrees failed in early October, has highlighted PSOE vulnerabilities amid left-wing fragmentation, including the breakdown of a Broad Front alliance between Sumar and Podemos. These developments have reinforced trader consensus around PP as the frontrunner, while PSOE’s narrower path depends on maximizing turnout and smaller-party cooperation in key districts. Scheduled campaign events through late November could still shift seat projections.