A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月溫度升高（ ºC ）
2026年9月溫度升高（ ºC ）
低於1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
低於1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
低於1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
低於1.30ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-10市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-10市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETA strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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