Traders see the next Grok large language model at version 4.7 or higher as likely to launch in mid-September due to xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and pressure from rival releases by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. The tightly grouped probabilities across September 13–18 reflect uncertainty over final testing benchmarks, safety evaluations, and exact deployment timing rather than any single confirmed date. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capability gains, training infrastructure readiness, and leadership signals, while low odds for late September or beyond indicate market consensus that delays are unlikely given current momentum. Key swing factors include any last-minute internal reviews or hardware scaling updates that could shift the precise release window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9 月 16 日 39.5%
9 月 15 日 37.6%
9 月 17 日 36.4%
9 月 28 日 7.3%
$10,174 交易量
$10,174 交易量
2026-09-13
9 月 13 日
37%
9 月 14 日
31%
9 月 15 日
38%
9 月 16 日
40%
9 月 17 日
36%
9 月 18 日
38%
9 月 19 日
22%
9 月 20 日
18%
9 月 21 日
26%
9 月 22 日
3%
9 月 23 日
6%
9 月 24 日
3%
9 月 25 日
<1%
9 月 26 日
<1%
9 月 27 日
<1%
9 月 28 日
7%
9 月 29 日
2%
9 月 30 日
<1%
截至9月30日無發佈
<1%
9 月 16 日 39.5%
9 月 15 日 37.6%
9 月 17 日 36.4%
9 月 28 日 7.3%
$10,174 交易量
$10,174 交易量
2026-09-13
9 月 13 日
$541 交易量
37%
9 月 14 日
$205 交易量
31%
9 月 15 日
$257 交易量
38%
9 月 16 日
$215 交易量
40%
9 月 17 日
$215 交易量
36%
9 月 18 日
$437 交易量
38%
9 月 19 日
$668 交易量
22%
9 月 20 日
$643 交易量
18%
9 月 21 日
$567 交易量
26%
9 月 22 日
$353 交易量
3%
9 月 23 日
$580 交易量
6%
9 月 24 日
$353 交易量
3%
9 月 25 日
$510 交易量
<1%
9 月 26 日
$513 交易量
<1%
9 月 27 日
$513 交易量
<1%
9 月 28 日
$461 交易量
7%
9 月 29 日
$387 交易量
2%
9 月 30 日
$515 交易量
<1%
截至9月30日無發佈
$513 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Grok large language model at version 4.7 or higher as likely to launch in mid-September due to xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and pressure from rival releases by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. The tightly grouped probabilities across September 13–18 reflect uncertainty over final testing benchmarks, safety evaluations, and exact deployment timing rather than any single confirmed date. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capability gains, training infrastructure readiness, and leadership signals, while low odds for late September or beyond indicate market consensus that delays are unlikely given current momentum. Key swing factors include any last-minute internal reviews or hardware scaling updates that could shift the precise release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
交易量
$10,174結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Grok large language model at version 4.7 or higher as likely to launch in mid-September due to xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and pressure from rival releases by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. The tightly grouped probabilities across September 13–18 reflect uncertainty over final testing benchmarks, safety evaluations, and exact deployment timing rather than any single confirmed date. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capability gains, training infrastructure readiness, and leadership signals, while low odds for late September or beyond indicate market consensus that delays are unlikely given current momentum. Key swing factors include any last-minute internal reviews or hardware scaling updates that could shift the precise release window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,174結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETTraders see the next Grok large language model at version 4.7 or higher as likely to launch in mid-September due to xAI’s rapid iteration cycle and pressure from rival releases by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. The tightly grouped probabilities across September 13–18 reflect uncertainty over final testing benchmarks, safety evaluations, and exact deployment timing rather than any single confirmed date. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capability gains, training infrastructure readiness, and leadership signals, while low odds for late September or beyond indicate market consensus that delays are unlikely given current momentum. Key swing factors include any last-minute internal reviews or hardware scaling updates that could shift the precise release window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions