**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
13% 機率
$246,041 交易量
$246,041 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 機率
$246,041 交易量
$246,041 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$246,041結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$246,041結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET**No holds an 87.5% market-implied probability because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through mid-September 2026.** Official records show the strongest earthquakes reached 7.5 magnitude in Venezuela and 7.4 in Colombia, well below the 8.5 threshold monitored by the USGS. No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center data, no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption has been confirmed by Smithsonian or USGS monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor impact has been reported. These thresholds represent low-frequency extremes relative to historical baselines—8.5+ quakes average fewer than one per decade globally, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur roughly once every 50–100 years. With the Atlantic hurricane season still active and seismic monitoring ongoing, traders price the remaining window as insufficient to overcome the observed absence of catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions