Kyle Schwarber holds an 80.5% implied probability as the 2026 MLB home runs leader because he has already reached 44 long balls with strong recent production, including multiple September homers that have widened his edge over the field. Contenders such as Junior Caminero (around 40), Pete Crow-Armstrong (41), and Yordan Alvarez (38) remain in striking distance but trail by several blasts with roughly three weeks remaining. Matt Olson and others sit further back, while lower-priced names like Ben Rice, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge show limited realistic paths to close the gap absent a dramatic late surge. The current pricing reflects Schwarber’s barrel rates, park factors in favorable matchups, and the absence of major roster or injury developments that would materially shift the race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Kyle Schwarber 81%
Junior Caminero 4.3%
Matt Olson 1.5%
Yordan Alvarez <1%
$3,183,612 交易量
$3,183,612 交易量
Kyle Schwarber
81%
Junior Caminero
4%
Matt Olson
2%
Yordan Alvarez
1%
Munetaka Murakami
1%
Ben Rice
1%
James Wood
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
<1%
Juan Soto
<1%
Mike Trout
<1%
Brandon Lowe
<1%
CJ Abrams
<1%
Aaron Judge
<1%
Cal Raleigh
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
<1%
Pete Alonso
<1%
Nick Kurtz
<1%
Rafael Devers
<1%
George Springer
<1%
Giancarlo Stanton
<1%
Manny Machado
<1%
Jordan Walker
<1%
Sal Stewart
<1%
Elly De La Cruz
<1%
Shea Langeliers
<1%
Kyle Schwarber 81%
Junior Caminero 4.3%
Matt Olson 1.5%
Yordan Alvarez <1%
$3,183,612 交易量
$3,183,612 交易量
Kyle Schwarber
81%
Junior Caminero
4%
Matt Olson
2%
Yordan Alvarez
1%
Munetaka Murakami
1%
Ben Rice
1%
James Wood
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
<1%
Juan Soto
<1%
Mike Trout
<1%
Brandon Lowe
<1%
CJ Abrams
<1%
Aaron Judge
<1%
Cal Raleigh
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
<1%
Pete Alonso
<1%
Nick Kurtz
<1%
Rafael Devers
<1%
George Springer
<1%
Giancarlo Stanton
<1%
Manny Machado
<1%
Jordan Walker
<1%
Sal Stewart
<1%
Elly De La Cruz
<1%
Shea Langeliers
<1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kyle Schwarber holds an 80.5% implied probability as the 2026 MLB home runs leader because he has already reached 44 long balls with strong recent production, including multiple September homers that have widened his edge over the field. Contenders such as Junior Caminero (around 40), Pete Crow-Armstrong (41), and Yordan Alvarez (38) remain in striking distance but trail by several blasts with roughly three weeks remaining. Matt Olson and others sit further back, while lower-priced names like Ben Rice, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge show limited realistic paths to close the gap absent a dramatic late surge. The current pricing reflects Schwarber’s barrel rates, park factors in favorable matchups, and the absence of major roster or injury developments that would materially shift the race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions