Ongoing implementation challenges tied to the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement continue to shape expectations. The accord established a sequenced process linking gradual Israeli redeployments from southern Lebanon to verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese Armed Forces control over pilot zones, while affirming mutual sovereignty. Hezbollah leaders rejected the deal outright and have resisted disarmament, prompting delays in follow-on talks through September. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has described any security arrangement as a potential prelude rather than immediate normalization. With full diplomatic relations requiring sustained progress on these fronts before the end of 2026, traders assess the probability of achieving that outcome as low.