Recent generic congressional ballot polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing 8–19% support among Black voters, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 8–13%. This range reflects 2024 gains that lifted Republican performance to roughly 16% in the presidential race, followed by measurable erosion in subsequent surveys tied to approval ratings in the low-to-mid teens. Factors such as economic conditions, specific policy outcomes, and redistricting developments have contributed to volatility in party identification and generic ballot preferences. Midterm turnout patterns among Black voters and campaign focus on working-class priorities remain key variables that could widen or narrow the final share before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於10–11% 26%
12–13% 22%
8–9% 21%
少於8% 11%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
少於8%
11%
8–9%
21%
10–11%
26%
12–13%
22%
14–15%
9%
16–17%
6%
18%以上
3%
10–11% 26%
12–13% 22%
8–9% 21%
少於8% 11%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
少於8%
$60 交易量
11%
8–9%
$538 交易量
21%
10–11%
$461 交易量
26%
12–13%
$351 交易量
22%
14–15%
$192 交易量
9%
16–17%
$20 交易量
6%
18%以上
$91 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent generic congressional ballot polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing 8–19% support among Black voters, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 8–13%. This range reflects 2024 gains that lifted Republican performance to roughly 16% in the presidential race, followed by measurable erosion in subsequent surveys tied to approval ratings in the low-to-mid teens. Factors such as economic conditions, specific policy outcomes, and redistricting developments have contributed to volatility in party identification and generic ballot preferences. Midterm turnout patterns among Black voters and campaign focus on working-class priorities remain key variables that could widen or narrow the final share before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$1,713結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent generic congressional ballot polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing 8–19% support among Black voters, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 8–13%. This range reflects 2024 gains that lifted Republican performance to roughly 16% in the presidential race, followed by measurable erosion in subsequent surveys tied to approval ratings in the low-to-mid teens. Factors such as economic conditions, specific policy outcomes, and redistricting developments have contributed to volatility in party identification and generic ballot preferences. Midterm turnout patterns among Black voters and campaign focus on working-class priorities remain key variables that could widen or narrow the final share before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
交易量
$1,713結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRecent generic congressional ballot polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican candidates drawing 8–19% support among Black voters, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 8–13%. This range reflects 2024 gains that lifted Republican performance to roughly 16% in the presidential race, followed by measurable erosion in subsequent surveys tied to approval ratings in the low-to-mid teens. Factors such as economic conditions, specific policy outcomes, and redistricting developments have contributed to volatility in party identification and generic ballot preferences. Midterm turnout patterns among Black voters and campaign focus on working-class priorities remain key variables that could widen or narrow the final share before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions