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icon for 2026年金球獎得主
運動·足球

2026年金球獎得主

icon for 2026年金球獎得主
運動·足球

2026年金球獎得主

哈里·凱恩 62.5%

拉明·亞馬爾 16.4%

基利安·姆巴佩 10.9%

羅德里 5%

Polymarket

$34,159,563 交易量

哈里·凱恩 62.5%

拉明·亞馬爾 16.4%

基利安·姆巴佩 10.9%

羅德里 5%

Polymarket

$34,159,563 交易量

哈里·凱恩

$4,079,115 交易量

63%

拉明·亞馬爾

$2,206,835 交易量

16%

基利安·姆巴佩

$2,140,035 交易量

11%

羅德里

$1,527,277 交易量

5%

萊納爾·梅西

$2,463,101 交易量

3%

克維查·克瓦拉茨赫利亞

$1,504,645 交易量

3%

法比安·魯伊斯

$1,162,719 交易量

1%

奧斯曼·登貝萊

$2,212,683 交易量

1%

邁克爾·奧利塞

$1,706,581 交易量

<1%

厄林·哈蘭德

$1,552,127 交易量

<1%

裘德·貝林漢

$1,279,036 交易量

<1%

維蒂尼亞

$843,515 交易量

<1%

維尼修斯·儒尼奧爾

$1,069,433 交易量

<1%

迪克蘭·賴斯

$864,656 交易量

<1%

布魯諾·費爾南德斯

$711,222 交易量

<1%

勞塔羅·馬丁內斯

$490,016 交易量

<1%

阿什拉夫·哈基米

$740,083 交易量

<1%

路易斯·迪亞斯

$440,734 交易量

<1%

Pau Cubarsi

$949,675 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d’Or market at 62.5% implied probability following a record-breaking 2025-26 campaign that featured 61-plus goals across the Bundesliga, Champions League, and World Cup, plus domestic doubles with Bayern Munich. Traders appear to value his consistent scoring, playmaking, and England’s third-place finish as the strongest overall case among nominees announced on September 8. Lamine Yamal sits at 16.4% after contributing to Spain’s World Cup title despite injury limitations, reflecting his growing consistency at Barcelona. Kylian Mbappé at 10.9% and Rodri at 4.5% draw support from individual output and collective success respectively, while Messi’s 3.2% accounts for Argentina’s runner-up showing. The October 26 ceremony in London will resolve the award based on the August 2025–July 2026 window.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
交易量
$34,159,563
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the 2026 Ballon d’Or market at 62.5% implied probability following a record-breaking 2025-26 campaign that featured 61-plus goals across the Bundesliga, Champions League, and World Cup, plus domestic doubles with Bayern Munich. Traders appear to value his consistent scoring, playmaking, and England’s third-place finish as the strongest overall case among nominees announced on September 8. Lamine Yamal sits at 16.4% after contributing to Spain’s World Cup title despite injury limitations, reflecting his growing consistency at Barcelona. Kylian Mbappé at 10.9% and Rodri at 4.5% draw support from individual output and collective success respectively, while Messi’s 3.2% accounts for Argentina’s runner-up showing. The October 26 ceremony in London will resolve the award based on the August 2025–July 2026 window.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
交易量
$34,159,563
結束日期
2026-10-31
市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

相關

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Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

94%
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Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

98%

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年金球獎得主" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 31 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "哈里·凱恩" at 63%, followed by "拉明·亞馬爾" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年金球獎得主" has generated $34.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年金球獎得主," browse the 31 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年金球獎得主" is "哈里·凱恩" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "拉明·亞馬爾" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年金球獎得主" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.