**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on December 31, 2026, with the successor selection process already underway through Security Council straw polls and candidate dialogues.** Recent developments, including his public remarks during the September 2026 General Assembly session framing it as his final UNGA and interviews describing preparations to depart at year-end, reinforce expectations of a standard transition rather than premature exit. Multiple candidates from Latin America and elsewhere remain in contention, with informal polls showing no decisive leader but steady progress toward a Security Council recommendation and General Assembly appointment for a January 2027 start. No verified actions, resolutions, or diplomatic initiatives indicate efforts to remove Guterres before term expiration, and the implied probability aligns with the predictable timeline under the UN Charter, absent unforeseen institutional or geopolitical disruptions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於26% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
26% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on December 31, 2026, with the successor selection process already underway through Security Council straw polls and candidate dialogues.** Recent developments, including his public remarks during the September 2026 General Assembly session framing it as his final UNGA and interviews describing preparations to depart at year-end, reinforce expectations of a standard transition rather than premature exit. Multiple candidates from Latin America and elsewhere remain in contention, with informal polls showing no decisive leader but steady progress toward a Security Council recommendation and General Assembly appointment for a January 2027 start. No verified actions, resolutions, or diplomatic initiatives indicate efforts to remove Guterres before term expiration, and the implied probability aligns with the predictable timeline under the UN Charter, absent unforeseen institutional or geopolitical disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
交易量
$2,369結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on December 31, 2026, with the successor selection process already underway through Security Council straw polls and candidate dialogues.** Recent developments, including his public remarks during the September 2026 General Assembly session framing it as his final UNGA and interviews describing preparations to depart at year-end, reinforce expectations of a standard transition rather than premature exit. Multiple candidates from Latin America and elsewhere remain in contention, with informal polls showing no decisive leader but steady progress toward a Security Council recommendation and General Assembly appointment for a January 2027 start. No verified actions, resolutions, or diplomatic initiatives indicate efforts to remove Guterres before term expiration, and the implied probability aligns with the predictable timeline under the UN Charter, absent unforeseen institutional or geopolitical disruptions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,369結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on December 31, 2026, with the successor selection process already underway through Security Council straw polls and candidate dialogues.** Recent developments, including his public remarks during the September 2026 General Assembly session framing it as his final UNGA and interviews describing preparations to depart at year-end, reinforce expectations of a standard transition rather than premature exit. Multiple candidates from Latin America and elsewhere remain in contention, with informal polls showing no decisive leader but steady progress toward a Security Council recommendation and General Assembly appointment for a January 2027 start. No verified actions, resolutions, or diplomatic initiatives indicate efforts to remove Guterres before term expiration, and the implied probability aligns with the predictable timeline under the UN Charter, absent unforeseen institutional or geopolitical disruptions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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