**Trader sentiment on a potential U.S. invasion of Venezuela reflects the January 3, 2026, targeted U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife rather than a broad ground invasion.** That raid, conducted under Operation Absolute Resolve amid prior naval buildup and strikes on suspected drug vessels, resulted in Maduro’s extradition for U.S. drug-trafficking charges and the installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president. Since then, Washington and Caracas have pursued sanctions relief, restored diplomatic ties, and finalized major oil agreements granting U.S. firms long-term stakes in Venezuelan fields, alongside counternarcotics cooperation. No large-scale troop deployments or invasion preparations have materialized in the intervening months. Upcoming catalysts include possible elections under Rodríguez, ongoing U.N. engagement, and debt or energy negotiations that could further stabilize the bilateral relationship or expose frictions. Current pricing aligns with the shift from confrontation to managed economic and political transition.