Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a steady two-party preferred lead over Labor of 54–56 percent, driven by voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government’s record on cost of living, crime, and infrastructure delivery. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced only marginal gains in personal ratings and no sustained recovery in primary support, leaving the party trailing on two-party estimates. One Nation’s elevated primary vote near 25 percent fragments the conservative side but is offset by preference flows that still favor the Coalition in most seat models, while the Greens remain marginal. With the November 28 election two months away, these patterns have anchored trader expectations around a Coalition victory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.6%
Greens <1%
$14,681 KL.
$14,681 KL.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
71%
Labor
22%
One Nation
10%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 71%
Labor 22%
One Nation 9.6%
Greens <1%
$14,681 KL.
$14,681 KL.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,984 KL.
71%
Labor
$3,487 KL.
22%
One Nation
$3,600 KL.
10%
Greens
$611 KL.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a steady two-party preferred lead over Labor of 54–56 percent, driven by voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government’s record on cost of living, crime, and infrastructure delivery. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced only marginal gains in personal ratings and no sustained recovery in primary support, leaving the party trailing on two-party estimates. One Nation’s elevated primary vote near 25 percent fragments the conservative side but is offset by preference flows that still favor the Coalition in most seat models, while the Greens remain marginal. With the November 28 election two months away, these patterns have anchored trader expectations around a Coalition victory.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Khối lượng
$14,681Ngày kết thúc
Nov 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a steady two-party preferred lead over Labor of 54–56 percent, driven by voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government’s record on cost of living, crime, and infrastructure delivery. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced only marginal gains in personal ratings and no sustained recovery in primary support, leaving the party trailing on two-party estimates. One Nation’s elevated primary vote near 25 percent fragments the conservative side but is offset by preference flows that still favor the Coalition in most seat models, while the Greens remain marginal. With the November 28 election two months away, these patterns have anchored trader expectations around a Coalition victory.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Khối lượng
$14,681Ngày kết thúc
Nov 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a steady two-party preferred lead over Labor of 54–56 percent, driven by voter dissatisfaction with the incumbent government’s record on cost of living, crime, and infrastructure delivery. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced only marginal gains in personal ratings and no sustained recovery in primary support, leaving the party trailing on two-party estimates. One Nation’s elevated primary vote near 25 percent fragments the conservative side but is offset by preference flows that still favor the Coalition in most seat models, while the Greens remain marginal. With the November 28 election two months away, these patterns have anchored trader expectations around a Coalition victory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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