**Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects high uncertainty around near- to above-average outcomes, with 125+ edging out at 49.5% implied probability while the 25–49, 50–74, and 75–124 bins sit near 48.5%.** Historical September counts average roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020), driven by weakening warm-season instability, occasional mid-latitude fronts, and tropical cyclone remnants that can spike southern and eastern activity. Preliminary reports through early September 2026 stand at just 18, consistent with a slow start, while an emerging El Niño is expected to reduce Atlantic tropical systems and associated tornadoes. Differentiation among the tightly clustered bins hinges on whether a few strong frontal passages or residual tropical moisture can produce clustered outbreaks in the Midwest, Plains, or Southeast before month-end, versus a continuation of sparse activity under suppressed patterns. Official SPC and NHC guidance on evolving steering patterns and any late-month tropical threats will be key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
125 or more 50%
25 - 49 49%
50 - 74 49%
75 - 124 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
4%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
49%
75 - 124
49%
125 or more
50%
125 or more 50%
25 - 49 49%
50 - 74 49%
75 - 124 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$10 KL.
4%
25 - 49
$0 KL.
49%
50 - 74
$0 KL.
49%
75 - 124
$0 KL.
49%
125 or more
$25 KL.
50%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects high uncertainty around near- to above-average outcomes, with 125+ edging out at 49.5% implied probability while the 25–49, 50–74, and 75–124 bins sit near 48.5%.**
Historical September counts average roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020), driven by weakening warm-season instability, occasional mid-latitude fronts, and tropical cyclone remnants that can spike southern and eastern activity. Preliminary reports through early September 2026 stand at just 18, consistent with a slow start, while an emerging El Niño is expected to reduce Atlantic tropical systems and associated tornadoes.
Differentiation among the tightly clustered bins hinges on whether a few strong frontal passages or residual tropical moisture can produce clustered outbreaks in the Midwest, Plains, or Southeast before month-end, versus a continuation of sparse activity under suppressed patterns. Official SPC and NHC guidance on evolving steering patterns and any late-month tropical threats will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Khối lượng
$35Ngày kết thúc
Oct 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects high uncertainty around near- to above-average outcomes, with 125+ edging out at 49.5% implied probability while the 25–49, 50–74, and 75–124 bins sit near 48.5%.**
Historical September counts average roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020), driven by weakening warm-season instability, occasional mid-latitude fronts, and tropical cyclone remnants that can spike southern and eastern activity. Preliminary reports through early September 2026 stand at just 18, consistent with a slow start, while an emerging El Niño is expected to reduce Atlantic tropical systems and associated tornadoes.
Differentiation among the tightly clustered bins hinges on whether a few strong frontal passages or residual tropical moisture can produce clustered outbreaks in the Midwest, Plains, or Southeast before month-end, versus a continuation of sparse activity under suppressed patterns. Official SPC and NHC guidance on evolving steering patterns and any late-month tropical threats will be key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$35Ngày kết thúc
Oct 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals reflects high uncertainty around near- to above-average outcomes, with 125+ edging out at 49.5% implied probability while the 25–49, 50–74, and 75–124 bins sit near 48.5%.** Historical September counts average roughly 66 tornadoes (1991–2020), driven by weakening warm-season instability, occasional mid-latitude fronts, and tropical cyclone remnants that can spike southern and eastern activity. Preliminary reports through early September 2026 stand at just 18, consistent with a slow start, while an emerging El Niño is expected to reduce Atlantic tropical systems and associated tornadoes. Differentiation among the tightly clustered bins hinges on whether a few strong frontal passages or residual tropical moisture can produce clustered outbreaks in the Midwest, Plains, or Southeast before month-end, versus a continuation of sparse activity under suppressed patterns. Official SPC and NHC guidance on evolving steering patterns and any late-month tropical threats will be key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp